San Mateo County Housing Market: June 2026 Update
Prices hit a new all-time high as inventory tightens
San Mateo County just set a new record. The median single family home price climbed to $2.225 million in May 2026, up 8.5% from a year ago and edging past the previous high set back in May 2024. At the same time, the number of homes actively for sale dropped to 510, down about 23% from the 665 homes on the market this time last year.
That combination, more demand chasing fewer homes, is the entire story of this market right now. Here is the data behind it, and what it means depending on which side of the transaction you are on.
The bigger picture first
Before zooming into San Mateo County specifically, a few macro threads are worth knowing because they explain why buyers are behaving the way they are.
Mortgage rates bounced off their 2026 lows. Rates pushed back up to 6.6% in May after touching 5.99% earlier in the year, on the back of war-related uncertainty, hot inflation data, and surprisingly strong jobs numbers. They have spent the last three years mostly between 6.5% and 7.25%, and the current forecast is for rates to average 6.4% across all of 2026.
Inflation is running hot again, with both the national and San Francisco CPI back up near 3.8%, well above the Fed's 2% target. That is the direct reason rates jumped, and it makes near term rate relief unlikely.
Jobs are actually growing again, both nationally and locally. The national economy added 172,000 jobs in May, averaging 114,000 a month so far in 2026 after three straight months of growth following a weak 2025. More notably for us, Bay Area employment has turned positive for the first time in five years, averaging roughly 2,000 new jobs a month over the last year. Combined with a stock market that just surged to new highs on AI related strength, there is a real wealth effect building for potential buyers, particularly here in the Bay Area.
One more macro detail that matters locally: 2025 was the first year in a long time where inbound migration to the Bay Area outpaced outbound. Seattle and Austin, two cities that have pulled residents away from San Francisco for years, are now net senders of people into the Bay Area rather than the reverse.
San Mateo County single family homes
The median sale price of $2.225 million is 8.5% above May 2025 and a new all-time high, driven by strong demand at the upper end of the market. Total closed sales came in at 369 for the month, about 4% fewer than last May, and price per square foot reached $1,250, approaching the highs last seen in 2022.
The more interesting story might be on the supply side.
Active inventory of 510 homes is down sharply from 665 a year ago, a roughly 23% drop. Pending sales are also down, but only modestly (392 versus 487), which tells you the drop in inventory is not from a lack of buyer interest. It is from a genuine shortage of homes coming to market.
That shortage is showing up directly in how homes are getting bid on.
Homes are selling for 105.1% of list price on average, meaning overbidding is alive and well for well priced, well positioned listings. At the same time, the number of listings taking a price cut has actually grown over the past year (150 in May 2026 versus 110 in May 2025). That is not a contradiction, it is a bifurcated market: homes priced right are getting bid up fast, while homes priced aggressively are getting corrected. Days on market sits at 20, nearly 50% longer than the rock bottom 14 days of 2022, but still a fast clock by any normal historical standard.
Condos are starting to catch up
Single family homes have led this cycle, but the condo market just had a notable month of its own. The median condo price jumped to $845,000 in May 2026, up sharply from $679,000 in May 2025. Price per square foot rose more modestly, to $762 from $740, and remains below the 2022 high of $871, so this looks more like a catch up move than a fundamental shift, but it is a real one.
Condo inventory has actually pulled back too, down about 10% from a year ago, while days on market improved to 47 from 60 last year, even though that is still far slower than the 18 day pace of 2022.
Bottom line
San Mateo County is tightening, not loosening. Prices just set a new record, inventory is down sharply from last year, and well priced homes are still drawing competitive bids. Mortgage rates ticked back up in May and are unlikely to provide near term relief, but a recovering job market and a resurgent stock market are giving qualified buyers more confidence and more capacity to compete.
For sellers, this is a genuinely strong moment, especially if your home is priced to reflect current demand rather than last year's comps. For buyers, the math is harder: less to choose from, real competition on the listings worth having, and financing that is not getting any cheaper soon. If you are weighing a move in either direction this summer, that is exactly the conversation worth having before you list or write an offer.
Data through May 2026, sourced from Compass via MLS data and Compass International Holdings analysis.
Thinking about buying or selling in San Mateo County this summer? Reach out anytime, I am happy to walk through what these numbers mean for your specific neighborhood and situation.
