San Mateo County February Real Estate Market Update

Inventory Rebounds After December Low

As of February 1, 2026, the number of active and coming-soon listings in San Mateo County was sharply rebounding from the midwinter nadir.

• 66% of listings were houses

• 27% were condos

• 7% were townhouses

Inventory almost always rises from February through summer or early fall, and the early data this year indicates that the typical seasonal climb is underway.
The number of active listings at any moment continues to be shaped by:

1. The pace at which new listings come on market

2. How quickly buyers put homes into contract

3. The sustained level of market heat

4. Sellers removing unsold listings

Long-Term Value Trends: Houses vs. Condos

The median dollar-per-square-foot values updated through January 2026 show a significant long-term divergence between houses and condos.

• House values remain well above condo values and continue to reflect strong appreciation over the past decade.

• Condominium values remain considerably lower and have not matched the scale of single-family price growth.

• Both segments display normal seasonal fluctuations, but longer-term trends-especially for houses-are far more meaningful than short-term variations.

Historically, sharp shifts correspond to major economic periods such as the foreclosure crisis, the high-tech boom, and the pandemic.

Median House Prices Rise 5.3% Year Over Year

San Mateo County’s 3-month rolling median house sales price in January 2026 increased approximately 5.3% year over year.

Notable patterns in the chart:

• Median prices often peak in late spring, especially in Q2.

• Seasonal ups and downs are common, but the broader multi-year trajectory remains strongly upward.

• The past several years-pandemic boom, post-boom adjustment, and recovery-continue to show substantial resiliency.

Venture Capital: A Powerful Economic Force

According to The Economist (published 1/27/26), the San Francisco Bay Area raised an estimated $154 billion in venture capital in 2025-
approximately 39% more than the next 10 global cities combined.

This level of investment continues to inject enormous wealth into Silicon Valley and the surrounding counties, contributing heavily to buyer demand and long-term market strength.

Mortgage Rates Near Two-Year Lows

Per Freddie Mac, the weekly average 30-year conforming interest rate on February 5, 2026 was:

6.11%

Very close to its lowest point in the past two years.

The broader chart (2023–2026 YTD) shows:

• Sharp rate increases in 2023

• A peak in late 2023

• Declines through 2024

• Another rise in early 2025

• A sustained fall in late 2025 into early 2026

This improved rate environment is a key factor energizing early-year buyer demand.

Market Dynamics Entering Spring 2026

The narrative summary indicates:

• The market begins to wake up in January, but buyers typically re-enter much faster than sellers, creating an early-year demand imbalance.

• New listings increase in late January but still lag buyer activity, generating competition for limited supply.

• This imbalance is the primary driver of home-price appreciation.

January data largely reflects the slow holiday period (December through early January), when sales volumes are traditionally at their lowest. These conditions typically shift rapidly as February begins the early stages of the spring market.

Additional forces shaping the current environment:

• Interest rates near multi-year lows

• Stock markets volatile but not far from all-time highs

• The AI boom continuing to inject significant capital into the region

• Low consumer confidence nationally, but affluent Bay Area households remain comparatively insulated

San Mateo County-one of the most affluent counties in the Bay Area-is expected to experience a strong and competitive spring season, barring new political or economic shocks.

Conclusion

The latest data suggests that San Mateo County is entering 2026 with strengthening fundamentals:

• Inventory is rising from seasonal lows, though still constrained.

• Home values, especially for single-family homes, remain high with steady year-over-year appreciation.

• Mortgage rates are at their most favorable levels in nearly two years.

• Venture capital investment continues to fuel local wealth and housing demand.

• Early-year buyer activity is already outpacing new listing volume, setting the stage for a competitive spring market.

Overall, the charts point to a market gaining momentum, with conditions poised to intensify through the coming months.